There are a number of ways to predict what’s ahead. Of course, fortunetellers are an option, but not one I could, in good conscience, recommend. Bayesian probability theory is far more reliable than a crystal ball but certainly beyond my ability to apply. For me, the most practical approach is to drive personal accountability.

Here’s what I mean: The commitments you and I make, in large part, determine our futures. If we keep our promises and know that we can rely on others to do the same, the future is much more certain. I discovered this idea in the writings of political philosopher Hannah Arendt. In her book “Crisis of the Republic,” she writes, “Promises are the uniquely human way of ordering the future, making it predictable and reliable to the extent that this is humanly possible.” I must admit that, at first, the future as “predictable and reliable” – but hinged on the promises of others – was a hard concept for me to digest.

It was tough to accept because it seems incredibly risky to place big bets on mere promises. But in reality, we do it all the time – especially when we roll out large and sometimes costly training programs. If people apply what they learn and get better results, there is a return on our hefty investment. This is a promise we as trainers often make to executives to obtain funding for our programs. But if the training doesn’t impact performance, it’s a wasted opportunity.

This begs the question: How do we inspire personal accountability in others? After all, using Arendt’s logic, being accountable (that is, being “predictable and reliable”) makes it possible to know and perhaps shape the future, right? If you can anticipate what’s ahead, you can make choices to ensure the best possible outcome when it comes to investing in training.

With such an important question on the table, I wanted to know more. Exploring the subject of commitment seemed like a good jumping-off point, so I conducted a national study on commitment in the workplace in May 2016. I asked a representative sample of the U.S. workforce a number of questions about why they make commitments and what makes them want to deliver on them. One of the issues I wanted to explore was whether declaring one’s commitment (telling others what they are going to do) increases the likelihood that one would follow through on it. The answer from 1,849 respondents was clear: 75.7 percent responded that they would, in fact, be more likely to deliver on a commitment that they had made known to others.

There is an important lesson here for trainers. In fact, I believe there are three practices that can improve accountability and thereby improve your ability to forecast the future:

1. Clarify expectations. Before asking anyone to commit to applying something they learned in training, make sure everyone understands what you want the outcome to be. While it’s nice to be surprised by exceptional performance, it’s unacceptable to have learners miss out because the target was unclear.

The best way to clarify expectations is through live conversations that include the learner and the learner’s manager and provide opportunities for questions, active listening and actual dialogue. Leaving that conversation, there should be no doubt in anyone’s mind about the deliverable and when it is needed. A follow-up email to document the conversation is almost always a good way to make sure the interaction created the same meaning for all involved.

2. Call for commitments. Managers should never hesitate to ask their employees to articulate exactly what they are promising to do with the training they receive. The manager should also commit to the level of support he or she will provide.

3. Consider reasons. It is important to consider the reasons for the commitment – both from an organizational perspective and from the performer’s point of view. In other words, you need to be clear about the “whys.” Why does this commitment matter to the organization or team? Why is the commitment personally important to the person making it? What about making and fulfilling the promise makes the employee feel good – as though he or she is adding value to the world? Simply put, the manager might ask, “Why is this important to you?”

It is possible to invest tens of thousands of dollars on sophisticated analytics that help us understand how our training programs impact organizational performance. However, the starting point for results is always commitment.